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How many Romanians and Bulgarians will come to the UK?

Newsflash:

"NINo registrations to EU2 nationals were amongst the largest increases in the year ending March 2014, with registrations to Romanian nationals increasing 29,000 (163%) to 47,000 and for Bulgarian nationals increasing 7,000 (71%) to 18,000." ONS Migration Data May 2014



This suggests that the BBC figures mentioned below will be exceeded after just 2-3 years.


The BBC article  Polls: No indication of huge Romanian-Bulgarian influx states that 4.2% of Bulgarian workers (147,000) and 1% of Romanians (94,000) would come to the UK once the barriers to free movement of labour are removed.  The BBC is an ardent supporter of the free movement of labour and not to be trusted on these matters so these figures require further investigation.  It turns out that the BBC's own polls suggest 300,000 Bulgarians and about 300,000 Romanians will move to the UK for work from 2013. Were the headline figures right or was their poll right?



The total influx of people into the UK from Bulgaria and Romania from 2013 and 2014 will be about 600,000 people. This compares with 450,000 Poles who settled in the UK in the noughties.  Even the BBC's own figure of 241,000 Bulgarians and Romanians coming to the UK is not the "very small number" stressed by the postmodern, ex-Warsaw correspondent Sanchia Berg.  It is a large number.

The migration of East Europeans will almost double the net migration rate to the UK over the next few years.  The government will hide this fact.


2017 update: You can read the rest of the article below where I calculate that  600,000 Bulgarians and Romanians in total might come on the basis of the BBC's actual poll figures.  According to the ONS the number of Bulgarians and Romanians in the UK rose from 230,000 in 2014 to 413000 in 2016 which suggests that about 270,000 came in just the three years from 2013 compared with the BBC estimate 241,000 in total.  The Referendum has put a huge dent in EU migration into the UK so we will never find out what the total figure might have been. There is no doubt that the BBC were right to trim the predictions from their poll but wrong to call 241,000 a small number.

The actual figure of 270,000 extra people entering the UK is a very large number.


Fortunately government education programmes in British schools have created a population of unemployed youngsters who welcome the opportunity to compete with hundreds of thousands of highly qualified Eastern Europeans and who have the racist instincts of postmarxists that make them thrill with pleasure at the British coloured population being marginalised (see Migration and Unemployment).  They have also been trained to enjoy the thought of 70 million people in the UK (see Predicted population of Britain).  As postmodern people we can all feel holy on the moral highground of supporting this wonderful migration (see postmodernism-postructuralism-postmarxism), those who oppose it will attract the usual opprobrium from the BBC and those educated in postmodern morality will gang up to bully these enemies, convinced of their own consensus holiness.

There are even some Tory and Labour spokesmen claiming that European nations will expel British pensioners if  Britain prevented the free movement of Labour from the EU.  This is nonsense because British pensioners obtain their pensions from the UK and all medical fees etc. are paid from the UK.  This is a huge net benefit to the host countries.

Bulgaria:

population: 7.2 million
workers: approx 3.5 million
unemployment rate: 12.4 %
number unemployed: 440,000
typical wage approx £4,500 per year.

You can examine the BBC's poll at: BBC Poll for Bulgaria

31% of Bulgarian workers intend to work in EU (1.1m)


26% of these (286,000) have UK as first choice

31% or 1.1 million actually intended to work in the EU in 2013-14 and  286,000 of these had the UK as their preferred destination.  However, 11% of those questioned, or 385,000, said they had already worked in the UK at some time.

Two thirds of those who said they were intending to work in the UK in 2013 were already making definite preparations for the move as were a quarter of those intending to go in 2014.  About 60% of those intending to work in the UK wanted to stay for as long as possible. 42% would be bringing their partners of whom 25% would be bringing family.

The BBC poll suggests that about 300,000 Bulgarians will come to the UK in the next two years.


Romania:

population: 21.8 million
workers: approx 9.4 million
unemployment rate: 6.7%
number unemployed: 630,000
typical wage approx £5,000 per year.

You can examine the BBC's poll at: BBC Poll for Romania

9.2% or  864,000 were currently in the process of moving to other parts of the EU to work of whom 16% or 138,000 were intending to move to the UK from 2013.  The number intending to move to the UK from 2014 was difficult to assess but is likely to be similar so approximately 260,000 Romanians will move to the UK from 2013-14.  However, 6.3 % of those questioned, or 592,000, said they had already worked in the UK at some time.   31% said they would be bringing a partner and 17% said they would be bringing children. This means that at the least there will be over 300,000 Romanians moving to the UK from 2013 and 2014.

ONS: The predicted population of the UK

Is the pro-immigration lobby racist?

The benefits of immigration to the UK economy

Migration and unemployment

Against racism

Global warming: what do we do now?

Should universities and colleges be financed by offering residence in the UK?

Immigration, house prices and boom economics

The UK Housing Crisis

The NHS Budget Shortfall


Tony Blair defends open door policy on immigration.

Labour wanted mass migration

The devastating effects of immigration on the economy and society of the UK

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