Prior to considering any of the predictions for a No Deal Brexit it is worthwhile to get a sense of perspective about the role of the EU in the UK economy. In 2016 exports to the EU constituted only 12% of UK GDP. ( See Exports of Goods and Services to EU28 (L84Y) , Exports of Goods and Services Total (ikbh) . ) Bear this in mind when you hear estimates of Brexit reducing GDP by 15% or more, they are clearly just trying to scare you. The UK is not a "great trading nation" nowadays, much of UK GDP is generated by the internal economy, not by International Trade. Several groups of economists (such as Rabobank and HM Treasury) have got so carried away with their negative predictions that they have failed to check whether they still fit with any plausible reality. Unfortunately journalists have simply accepted what they have said. The Treasury produced this rather shabby graph to demonstrate how devastating Brexit might be over 15 years: Firstly noti...