Political Thoughts - the magazine

The decision on whether to extend the transition period must be made by 30th June.  Does it need extending? Barnier says that the biggest obstacle is that "the EU will not agree to any future partnership that does not include a balanced and long-term agreement on fisheries" ( Euractiv ).  If that was all then you might have imagined that a trade deal could be obtained by January 2021 so what is the problem? The problem goes deeper.  The UK wants to have a trade deal like Canada or South Korea.  A deal about trade.  The EU wants to bind the UK into a sort of EEA deal in return for free trade. The EU expects that the UK will commit to keeping EU standards on social and environmental policy, as well as state aid, in return for a free trade deal with zero tariffs and quotas.  In Barnier's latest Press Release he says that the UK must agree to the supremacy of the European Court of Justice on many matters and accuses the UK of holding up negotiations b...

5th December 2013, update May 2016 Nigel Lawson, ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer,  recently criticised the UK membership of the EU , the media has covered his mainstream view as if he is a bad boy starting a fight in the school playground, but is he right about the EU? What has changed that makes EU membership a burning issue?  What has changed is that the 19 countries of the Eurozone are now seeking political union to escape their financial problems.   Seven further EU countries have signed up to join the Euro but the British and Danish have opted out.  The EU is rapidly becoming two blocks - the 26 and Britain and Denmark.   Lawson's fear was that if Britain stays in the EU it will be isolated and dominated by a Eurozone bloc that uses "unified representation of the euro area" , so acting like a single country which controls 90% of the vote in the EU with no vetoes available to the UK in most decisions.  The full plans for Eurozone po...

Prior to considering any of the predictions for a No Deal Brexit it is worthwhile to get a sense of perspective about the role of the EU in the UK economy. In 2016 exports to the EU constituted only 12% of UK GDP. ( See  Exports of Goods and Services to EU28 (L84Y) ,  Exports of Goods and Services Total (ikbh) . ) Bear this in mind when you hear estimates of Brexit reducing GDP by 15% or more, they are clearly just trying to scare you.  The UK is not a "great trading nation" nowadays, much of UK GDP is generated by the internal economy, not by International Trade.  Several groups of economists (such as Rabobank and HM Treasury) have got so carried away with their negative predictions that they have failed to check whether they still fit with any plausible reality.  Unfortunately journalists have simply accepted what they have said. The Treasury produced this rather shabby graph to demonstrate how devastating Brexit might be over 15 years: Firstly noti...

In this article I will explore how much benefit the UK obtains from being inside the EU.  Most articles about the benefits of the EU simply state the growth in trade between the EU and the UK but  I will also compare the UK with other countries to show the comparative benefit that the EU has delivered. If the EU is beneficial to the UK it should be obvious that UK-EU exports should be growing faster than the exports from other countries in general to the EU.  In the table below the growth in trade with the EU since 1993 is compared between countries. It should shock the reader to discover that exports grew less between the UK and the EU than they did between Russia, China or the USA and the EU .  All of these countries are not EU members but enjoyed a better export growth with the EU than the UK. Being a member of the EU was not a trading advantage for the UK.  In fact the UK is 28th in terms of export growth with the EU.  EU financed pressure g...

Comedian gains kudos from Anti-Austerity There have recently been a string of "Anti-Austerity" protests in the UK.  These protests are actually about falling incomes but why are incomes falling?: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) weekly earnings Curiously the Anti-Austerity marchers are marching against their own political opinions.  This schizophrenic political thinking is a result of propaganda.  The reasons why both Labour and Tories have promised Austerity are outlined below. EU Balance of Payments Deficit Membership of the EU is accompanied by a £100 bn per annum Balance of Payments Deficit with the EU.  This is the total amount of money that is gained by the EU as a result of trading with and performing financial transactions with the UK.  The UK is an overpopulated country that depends upon making a profit from overseas trade to remain wealthy but it makes a gigantic loss with the EU. ONS Data  (The Balance of Trad...