Coronavirus: The Experts were wrong in the UK. The way forward.

The countries that have focused on removing coronavirus (Covid19) from their population and have ignored the WHO advice on travel have been most successful at tackling the epidemic. New Zealand, Australia, S. Korea, China etc. have all achieved nearly zero new cases and reduced infection levels to where tracking contacts of new infections is relatively easy.

The method they have used is straightforward: intense lockdown, quarantining new cases, totally locking down contacts and imposing quarantine regulations for visitors from overseas. This method can reduce new cases from thousands a day to a few hundred a day within a month (cf: China and rate of change in S Korea etc).

The method the UK has used is "herd immunity". This means that over 60% of the UK population would need to be infected. Herd immunity is ruthless. It assumes that over the next couple of years about 20% of the vulnerable will die of Covid-19. Our current policy will indeed kill many of our grandparents/parents, will create huge problems for those undergoing immune suppression and it will kill patients who have transplants and those suffering from diseases from asthma to cancer for years to come.

The original muddled thinking by the UK "experts" was that Covid-19 will always be with us and so, if the UK wishes to be part of the world where easy global travel is still possible, it must expose the UK population to infection. This assumed that if you are infected once you cannot be infected again and this is not certain. It also assumed that there would not be Covid free countries like New Zealand that will quarantine all entries from the UK if it practices herd immunity. It also assumed that the unnecessary deaths of tens of thousands of vulnerable British people will be happily accepted so long as we can keep our borders open.

We can still beat Coronavirus in the UK. This is an island. We can switch to the New Zealand model tomorrow.

If we do not change course now we will get the worst of all worlds because we will be unable to travel freely to Covid free countries and will have years of continued Covid outbreaks that will slowly kill anyone who is particularly vulnerable..

See Lancet: What policymakers need to know about Covid-19 protective immunity

See Coronavirus Exit Strategy.

Also see The Experts are often wrong.

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