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Coronavirus exit strategy

When the government introduced the policy of herd immunity they did not make it crystal clear that this involved as many as 20% of those over 80 dying as well as a substantial number of younger people. 

It is becoming clear that the countries that have opted for herd immunity are suffering dreadful losses from Covid-19 compared with those that adopted a quarantine and contact chasing strategy:

The quarantine and contact chasing strategy involves effectively policing borders with all new arrivals into the country being tested for Covid-19 and even the 14 day quarantine of all arrivals at ports and airports.

South Korea and China have shown that Covid-19 can be eradicated without vaccinations or cures:

S.Korea had only 8 new cases and these would have been the focus of activity for hundreds of contact tracers and testers.

We can beat this virus, there is no need to wait for a cure or accept that "it will always be with us".

The figures for Germany are not shown on the graph.  It has an intermediate, 55 deaths per million and this is due to Germany pursuing an aggressive contact chasing regime whilst keeping its borders open in the EU.  The effect is not sufficient to allow the resumption of normal life.

An effective vaccine or medicine to lessen the death count is unlikely for at least six months and could take much longer.

Our government is wavering.  The experts initially advised herd immunity but now the death toll and disruption is so high that they are thinking again.  We are poised between two alternatives.  We can either have a lockdown that is extended to the rest of the year combined with appalling smartphone apps that monitor our every move OR change approach to a full lockdown for a month with quarantine for all who test positive and their close contacts plus border control.  We could get this disease under control in a month to two months then return to our normal lives or we can continue as we are and lose our freedom.

The choice is ours, let your MPs know what you prefer.

23/5/2020

The way forward:

The government, along with the EU, USA and many Western countries took the herd immunity course.  This was a mistake. Here is how to rectify it:
  • Increase the completeness of the lockdown for 2 weeks or until new cases are under 200 a day. 
  • Train sufficient contact tracers to deal with 200 new cases a day.
  • Quarantine those who test positive in quarantine centres.
  • For contacts, increase lockdown with free food deliveries and no leaving home until clear.
  • Monitor lockdown compliance and disease status in households which have had a contact with a Covid positive person.  Compulsory quarantine if non-compliant.
  • Stop all entry of Covid-19 from overseas. It is madness to allow entry to 15000 untested people every day.
This is straightforward and should have been implemented in February. Had it been implemented we would have been free of Covid-19 by now. It will allow everyone to resume normal life.

Within 10 years there will be a vaccine or a cure but there is no need to spend that time being tortured by repeated lockdowns and fettered with spy apps on smartphones.




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