The HM Treasury Model of Brexit - How well did it perform?

The HM Treasury Model of the UK leaving the EU considered that a "Leave" vote would deliver a severe shock to the economy.  The shock was predicted to be due to the uncertainty that might prevail between the referendum and an eventual Brexit 2-3 years later. As George Osborne says in the forward:  "This paper focuses on the immediate economic impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow."

Although the Treasury mentions "Article 50" it uses this as a proxy for "deciding to leave".  Article 50, in itself, is no more than the UK Government informing the EU of its intention to leave and was only used to describe the decision to Leave in the Treasury study because Cameron had said that Article 50 would be invoked immediately after a Leave vote.  Prime Minister May has made it clear from the day after the Referendum that "Brexit means Brexit" and the EU and everyone else knows that a letter detailing this decision will be sent to the EU Council in the Spring (Article 50).  The "uncertainty" that forms most of the Treasury Report clearly started on June 24th 2016. What did HM Treasury say about the post-referendum economy?

The Treasury predicted that inflation would rocket within weeks of the Referendum to 1.5-2% as in the graph below, achieving 2.3-2.7% by 2017.

What has actually happened?

ONS CPI Data

The treasury forecast that hundreds of thousands of people would be put out of work within weeks:

What actually happened? According to the ONS unemployment fell:

HM Treasury Model predictions vs ONS Data for Unemployment

The Treasury predicted an immediate impact on wages:

An immediate fall of 1% occurring after the referendum. What actually happened? Pay has been steady since the referendum, continuing the trend for 2016:

ONS Earnings Data

The Treasury predicted an immediate fall in GDP:

But the UK GDP ROSE by 0.5%, slightly better than the expected base, in the 3 months after the referendum (no difference from base - most developed economies are slowing).  This growth in GDP was not financial services: "growth was primarily driven by the motion picture, video and TV programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities, and computer programming industries." (ONS) The ONS figures, produced on October 27th 2016, mark the death of Remain's economic argument.

ONS Data

The Treasury imagined that house prices would fall by 10 to 18% but as the up-to-date data from Zoopla shows, this has not happened:

House prices are holding steady and are following a steady curve from before the referendum. Indeed, you would hardly know a referendum had happened!

The Treasury told us that Sterling (the pound) would fall by 12-15% immediately after the referendum.  What actually happened is that sterling rose before the Referendum because speculators imagined that Remain would win and that this would cause sterling to rise.

 Ignoring this immediate, pre-referendum spike, sterling did indeed fall by about 10%.  However, sterling had fallen by twice as much in the previous two years so even without a referendum any economist would have predicted a fall in sterling, referendum or no referendum.  The reason that sterling is persistently falling is a terrible Balance of Payments Current Account Deficit, largely with the EU:

Sterling is falling because the UK is in the EU Common (Single) Market. (See The Imbalance of EU-UK Trade).

Someone in the Treasury should be brought to account for this obvious scaremongering before the Referendum, and not just George Osborne.  It is like the "dodgy dossier" all over again.