The "Remain" argument was that the economy would be damaged by leaving the EU. Obviously we will need to wait until 2019 to see if this argument was correct because the UK does not leave the EU until then.
At the moment any effects of the EU Referendum are due to confidence. If businesses and investors are confident about the future they will drive their business forward. Two years is just beyond the normal period over which businesses plan so Leaving the EU will only be a marginal factor in current business planning. Businesses are most affected by what is happening now.
What is happening now? There is a global economic slowdown that was beginning before the EU Referendum so businesses are reacting to this.
Something else is happening now. The UK does not leave the EU for years to come so the BBC, the major broadcaster in the UK, is attempting to undermine confidence in the UK economy. They are attempting to damage the prosperity of all of us in revenge for voting Leave, perhaps hoping that if they can cause enough damage and unrest the future Brexit will be stopped.
The fact that the BBC coverage is entirely directed at undermining "confidence" is clearest from the recent coverage of the "PMI", the Purchasing Manager's Index, which measures confidence. A recent fall in this index was covered as a real, drastic decline in UK economic output (in fact service and manufacturing output was up in July) and the Index was given the first slot on all news programmes.
It is treason to attack the UK in favour of another country, the EU. The BBC are traitors to you and me. The editorial and management staff are using their elevated positions to undermine our economy. The Government must intervene, most importantly it must remove Rona Fairhead, the Chair of the BBC Trust, who seems to have been appointed to work for the Remain campaign. Fairhead's appointment was obviously political and can be undone on the basis that it was a political appointment.
The treachery of the BBC pales compared with that of the Guardian which ran an article that said: "If Britain comes out of this looking anything less than severely diminished it will be devastating for the EU."
The worst feature of these attacks on confidence in the British economy is that, given a dreadful global economy, the UK is doing quite well.
The British People have given the Establishment and David Miliband's "International Order" a bloody nose. They are fighting back and they are vicious and ruthless.
A Recap of the Real Economy since the EU Referendum
Economists who supported Remain in the EU Referendum were widely predicting that the turmoil due to uncertainty after the EU Referendum would wreck the UK economy. Did it happen?
The surest sign of people expecting economic ruin is a run on the stock exchanges:
The orange dot marks the date of the EU Referendum. Nothing of any consequence happened as a result of the Referendum except some speculative selling on the day after which was recouped rapidly. The EU Referendum had the same sort of effect as normal fluctuations.
The FTSE 250 experienced more speculation but is now also back on course.
This looks more likely but Gilts have been falling for the past two years. The falls have been experienced globally, and gilts have performed worse in Germany than in the UK:
Falling Gilts have nothing to do with EU Referendum.
But what about the pound?
The pound has been overvalued in recent years because of the flight of cash from the ongoing Eurozone crisis. The green line in the graph above is the value that the pound should achieve based on economic performance. It seems as if the intention to Brexit has returned the pound to values that favour export growth. However, this fall had been happening since 2014 and was only hastened by the EU Referendum.
It is now very clear that the central plank of the Remain campaign, that the uncertainty after a vote to Leave would wreck the economy was nonsense.
The Referendum has also been blamed for falling Commercial Real Estate (CRE) values. However, the CRE market was overheated in 2014 and has been falling ever since. It is not falling specifically as a result of the intention to leave the EU and CRE values are still high. Heavy investment by overseas investors in UK property is not good for the economy because it leads to a large Primary Income Deficit, which is a measure of Rents, Profits etc. that foreign companies send abroad. The Primary Income Deficit drains the country of wealth.
Business confidence is also on its pre-referendum trajectory:
Remain economists also "predicted" that we would be a bit poorer in 15 years time if Leave won. No economist could make an accurate prediction over a 15 year period. Very, very few economists predicted the Financial Crisis in 2003 when it was only 5 years away! Furthermore, the Remain economists predicted turmoil after the Referendum that never happened so are proven to be wrong already.
We know that the global economy is currently very dubious, with Chinese growth stalling and world trade failing to expand. It would be very easy for Remain journalists to invent stories about the economic distress caused by these events being due to the Referendum. Such journalists would be the enemy of their neighbours and friends, damaging the UK economy out of spite.
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