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AIs will dominate warfare by 2030s. Will freedom end?

Unfortunately there are only two approaches to military AI: ban it or have the best.  AI has not been banned so the pace at which AI is being introduced into the military is breathtaking as countries attempt to get the best.  

AI is being used to improve the effectiveness of battlefield weapons such as airplanes, tanks and artillery but it is also being used to create autonomous and semi-autonomous weapons.  Semi-autonomous weaponry is particularly interesting.  Individual semi-autonomous weapons are currently being controlled remotely by humans but a transition is occurring where clusters of AI weapons will surround human combatants as they go into battle.

The UK has, perhaps, one of the most advanced 6th generation airplanes under development.  The Tempest is designed to control a fleet of low cost, pilotless drones that can independently engage the enemy.

RAF Tempest
Land forces will also use relatively low cost land and air based drones to augment their capabilities.

AI Heavy Machine Gun
Autonomous AIs have huge advantages in observational roles and devices the size of flying insects are under intensive development.


Perhaps the greatest advantage of AI's in combat is rapid decision taking by tactical AIs.  Recent exercises have shown that AI augmented teams can beat humans on the battlefield (provided the humans do not override the judgement of the AIs).

Towards the end of this decade we will see troops going into action with clusters of semi-autonomous assistants.  Towards the end of the 2030s we would expect AIs to be running the battlefield with little human involvement.

The rapidity of military AI development should not be underestimated.  

The first effect of the widespread introduction of AI's will be to reduce or eliminate small scale insurrections.  AI weapons cost money so any unofficial armies will face very superior forces.  Beetle sized AIs will uncover rebel lairs and autonomous drones will wipe out their inhabitants.

Microdrones

Microdrones are, apparently, already available to UK armed forces.  

These developments mean that Civil War will cease to be an option in the 2030s unless sizeable numbers of establishment forces defect.  In fact it is doubtful that Civil War is feasible in advanced military nations even in the 2020s, for instance China has linked all communications, such as the Internet, CCTV and telephone networks, to AI based security screening so that prospective insurgents can be "neutralised" before they become a threat.

As the superiority of entirely autonomous AI warfare becomes apparent we should expect a further shift in power to the corporate elite.  It will be blindingly obvious that the super rich can control populations by force and society will regress to a medieval model with multinational CEOs and billionaires as the barons and princes.  Should a third world war break out the nation with the best AI will win.

Can any of this be stopped?  Perhaps we are indeed destined for a century or two of corporatism where the new aristocrats will create a communitarian state that will convince the children that "society" will provide everything people need so long as they forsake absurd and evil ideas such as freedom and independence.  We can only hope they do not use brain surgery, gene modification or pharmaceuticals to cure these evils.  If this communitarian nightmare does happen then our only hope is that humanity becomes established off planet so that people can escape.  The construction of Starship fleets is already under way and these might save humanity after the 2040s.

Mars Base with Starships

If all of this seems a bit dark to you then you might reflect on the fact that everything described here as happening, including SpaceX's Starship, is happening.  Whether the speculations on the future will happen is for you to ponder.  Meanwhile our wonderful mainstream media force-feeds us with ID politics instead of pulling together what is happening.

22/01/2021

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