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COP 26 Climate Conference

The 2020 COP26 Climate Conference will now happen in November 2021.  This will be focusing on how carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can be reduced in the hope of stopping global warming. Sadly things are not so simple.

I will explain what is actually happening below.  We should all be aware of what is happening despite the desire of the broadcasters to hide the truth.  Unfortunately the Broadcast Media have been the main cause of global warming.  In the 1970s they covered the first ecological movement ("Blueprint for Survival" and "Limits to Growth") as the work of gibbering hippies, in the 1990s and noughties they lay in bed with the oil and car industries and in the 2020s they are refusing to even mention that there is an ecological crisis, not a global warming crisis.  Even when David Attenborough made this absolutely clear the broadcasters simply ignored him.

Global warming is indeed caused by CO2 but the way this occurs is not straightforward.  We can see this from the effect of COVID on CO2.  COVID showed that massively reducing CO2 output during the lockdowns and controls had zero effect on global atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  As you can see in the graph below the annual variation in atmospheric CO2 due to plant growth (red) and the overall atmospheric CO2 concentration (black) continued as normal:

Fig 1: Global CO2 is unaffected by COVID  

A 10-20% fall in CO2 emissions failed to affect global atmospheric CO2 levels.  Why?

The answer is simple. Man made CO2 is only 5% of the annual CO2 output from all sources on Earth.  So COVID should wake us up to the fact that nature is still producing nineteen times as much CO2 as people.  This can be seen in the figure below:


Carbon cycle. Amounts are in Pg carbon
1 Pg C is approx 3.7 Pg CO2

If you have not heard that human CO2 has little affect on atmospheric CO2 concentrations except over years here is a quote from the Scripps Institute: “CO2 emissions reductions on the order of 20-30% would need to be sustained for six to 12 months in order for the increase in atmospheric CO2 to slow in a detectable way”.  This does not mean that man-made CO2 is not contributing to climate change, as is explained below.

Many people have spotted that there is something wrong with global warming science as it is covered in the media.  A small, 5%, fluctuation in CO2 emissions due to humanity really should have been sequestered by natural CO2 sinks. 

The COVID outbreak has drawn attention to the fact that only a small proportion - less than 5% - of CO2 released annually is man made.  This man made CO2 mixes with natural CO2 and should be removed from the atmosphere by the natural processes that remove CO2.  The logical conclusion from the continuously rising levels of CO2 is that CO2 is not being removed very well by the various systems that eventually turn CO2 into plants, carbonate rock, peat etc.  

Man is only imbalancing the system by 5% so the system for removing CO2 from the atmosphere, the "carbon sinks", must be on the ropes.   We have all heard of various schemes to increase the size or activity of "carbon sinks" to stop global warming.  A recent study found that if we plant 25% more forest than we have at present we could reduce atmospheric carbon by 25%.  Another way to consider these studies is to admit that global warming is partly the result of cutting down vast areas of forest and damaging other carbon sinks such as the river deltas that bury up to 45% of global carbon.  Global warming is caused by the fact that we are increasingly damaging the carbon sinks at the same time as pouring billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Global warming is by no means due solely to CO2, it is also due to the loss of carbon sinks and this loss is mainly due to overpopulation.  The rise in CO2 emissions is also due to overpopulation.  When David Attenborough made this plain to broadcasters they simply ignored him.  Broadcasters prefer "global warming" to "ecological crisis".

Will COP 26 be able to stop global warming?  CO2 is piling up in the atmosphere at a rate of 2.5 ppm a year.    We would need to more than halve our current global CO2 emissions to begin to reduce the CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
The huge decrease in manmade CO2 due to COVID
It had no affect on atmospheric CO2

The simplest way to fix the ecological crisis is to lower CO2 emissions and restore the carbon sinks by planting trees etc. but this will not work on its own if populations and prosperity increase.  Two children per family or less is needed to fix the wider ecological crisis by providing space for nature.  Sadly our broadcast media will not impart this message, they are the real cause of the ecological crisis.

14/12/2020
 
Postscript:    1 ppm change at Mauna Loa is equivalent to 7.8 Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere. We emit 10 gigatonnes CO2 every quarter of a year - equivalent to 1.3 ppm change in CO2 and 15% of this is 0.195 ppm. Too small to be seen in the CO2 record (a change of about 0.5 ppm is required for a clear signal).

So a rise of 2.5 ppm a year would roughly equal 19.5 gigatonnes of emissions which is only 50% of CO2 emitted by humans.

The real divide in the Global Warming debate is between those who wish to put people in ever smaller hutches and put nature in parks and those who want the world back by reducing the population.
 

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