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What is the Evidence for Electoral Fraud in the USA?

I am happy that it looks like Biden will be the US President.  Biden will be good for the UK and Trump let down a large section of US society that desperately needed a representative who was presidential rather than a game show host. (See Biden to Win US Election. What then? for why Biden will be good for the UK).

That said I was greatly disturbed by the abrupt slowing of vote counting in the "swing states" which was accompanied by the sudden appearance of large numbers of Biden votes.  I noticed this because I was calculating how far the remaining vote would need to swing to Biden for him to win.  A Biden win looked almost impossible on the Wednesday morning because in most of the swing states over 90% of the vote had been counted and Biden would have needed about 70% of the remaining votes to win. This seemingly impossible change to Biden having 70% of the vote when he was behind was why Trump declared victory and is the only real reason for doubting the election result.

Buzzfeed has a summary of the various allegations of Electoral Fraud and tampering. This summary is generally credible and none of the accusations of tampering except the sudden increase in Biden votes would really have swung the election even had they happened.

It is only events such as this:


in which the Biden vote increased massively and the Trump vote did not change at all, being stuck at 2,200,902, that are worrying.  The explanation according to Buzzfeed was:

"The influx of 138,339 Biden votes cited in some tweets was the result of a data error, according to a spokesperson for Decision Desk HQ, an election data and analysis service.

It was a simple error from a file created by the state that we ingested,”

The “It was a simple error from a file created by the state that we ingested,” seems vague at best.  If it was an error why wasn't it removed? Obviously the spokesman did not mean "error".   My guess is that the Biden votes had indeed been validly cast because there were large numbers of observers at the vote counting.  However, the influx of enough votes to almost demolish Trump's lead in Michigan being the result of an "error" needs a full explanation, not a vague denial of wrong doing.

After the morning of November 4th it turned out that not only did Biden get the necessary 70% of remaining votes but some of the changes in the announced vote counts were nearly 100% for Biden.

Ultimately it is going to be very difficult to prove that the postal votes involved fraud.  A significant fraction of the postal voters in the swing states would need to be interviewed and the Biden-to-Trump voting ratios compared with those in the actual postal ballots.  Other possibilities such as intimidation of postal voters are almost impossible to prove because it is one person's word against another's.

What seems clear is that the Democrats were much better at getting out the postal vote than the Republicans and that, because postal voting is not a secret ballot, they could ensure that mainly Democrat votes were solicited.   If there is a problem with the result of the US Presidential Election it is postal voting.  This is an important lesson for governments across the world.


9/11/2020

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