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What happened in the US Election. Why Biden may have Won.

I have been following the US Presidential Election quite closely and was surprised to discover that Trump had a lead in most of the swing states until Wednesday.

Indeed, the Trump lead on Wednesday morning was such that in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia it would have needed about 70% of the remaining votes to be pro-Biden for Biden to win.  This was why Trump declared victory.

Yet the remaining 5 or 10% of votes turned out to be almost 100% for Biden.

Something is fishy here.  My guess is that a loophole in the postal voting system was exploited.  A normal ballot is secret and allows voters to vote according to their conscience but this is not the case with postal votes.  Activists can acquire and take postal voting forms to non-voters and stand over them while they complete the form.  This means that voters can be intimidated into casting the desired vote.  When the form is completed the activists can offer to post it and hence throw away votes that they do not want.

The collection of postal votes by activists is not banned in the USA and there is no way to police what happens in the voter's own home.

My conclusion is that the Election was indeed stolen but that the theft was legal or hard to prosecute.

The problem of how to enforce the secret ballot also affects Internet Voting.

There is a lesson here for the UK.  Postal voting is wide open to exploitation by activists.  As Steve Baker MP says :

"I have received accounts of candidates visiting electors’ homes, demanding postal votes are completed in front of them, and then taking them away. I have testimony of one young woman’s unmarked postal vote being taken off her under duress by a relative and handed to a candidate. We learned about it because she wanted to cancel her postal vote so she could cast it again herself."

Steve Baker has also pointed out that there are many other ways that postal voting has been fraudulently exploited in the UK such as the use of vacant addresses, landlords obtaining votes for all of their tenants etc. 

Postal vote fraud happens frequently in the UK but has been industrialised in the USA.  The success of this strategy means that it will be used in the next UK Election if we do not act now.

The Electoral Commission produced a report on Electoral Fraud in 2014 this report states that:

"by removing the act of voting from the protected public space of a polling station, people who have been sent postal ballot packs may be more vulnerable to undue influence, intimidation, harassment or pressure to vote in a particular way. Because of this vulnerability, electors may also face pressure to apply for an absent vote against their wishes. "

Although recognising the problem the Commissioners did not appreciate how much politics had changed and polarised.  Groups such as BLM and Momentum etc have appeared that may regard a little pressure on voters as a perfectly justifiable means to an end.  It is small beer compared with demolishing public monuments and making threats of violence against opponents.

5/11/2020

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