Safe COVID19 Vaccine possible by March 2021. Expect September 2021.

Vaccine development involves Phase I and II trials that test whether a vaccine is broadly safe and produces an immune response and then Phase III trials that test whether the vaccine is truly safe and effective in a large group of volunteers. Phase I and II trials take around six months and Phase III trials can take as long as a year.

China is rushing out its vaccine now on the basis of Phase I and II trials. There was much news about Russia launching a vaccine but in the small print the vaccine was not going to be fully launched until at least January 2021 and there is some doubt about safety of the vaccine.

The apparently cumbersome, long timescale for vaccine development is based upon a century of experience. Vaccines can be dangerous if they have not been fully tested and modern test procedures have been designed to ensure that any risk from the vaccine is far lower than that due to the disease. This is especially important with COVID19 where the disease kills very few young adults. If you were in a group that had a one in ten thousand risk of dying from COVID19 (ie: the risk to everyone in your age group whether or not they had caught the disease) you would be foolish to accept a vaccine with a one in five thousand risk of death from the vaccine.

Releasing a vaccine after Phase II is only acceptable where people with a very high risk of catching and dying from COVID19 or of spreading COVID19 are involved.

According to the WHO there are numerous vaccine candidates but only the following have Phase III trials booked or underway:

The Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine - March 2021 - October 2021. The vaccine is under "rolling review" which could lead to release as early as March.

Wuhan Institute of Biological Products/Sinopharm - probably August 2021

Sinovac - September 2021

Laboratorio Elea Phoenix S.A. - December 2021

CanSino Biologics Inc. - December 2021

Moderna/NIAIDRNALNP-encapsulated mRNA20 - October 2022

BioNTech SE/Pfizer - June 21 - December 2022

Janssen Vaccines & Prevention B.V. - March 2023

Treatments for COVID19

According to the Pharmaceutical Journal only Dexamethasone for acute, severe COVID19 is available as a proven treatment, it reduces death in ventilated patients by 35% and 20% in patients receiving oxygen but has little effect on earlier stages of the disease. Possible other treatments will not be available for a year or more. Despite early positive results, Remdesivir has not been found to be efficacious in clinical trials.

5/10/2020

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