Britain has already ceded Northern Ireland. Politicians must accept this.

The Good Friday Agreement was designed to manage a slow transition of Northern Ireland into Union with the Republic of Ireland. The Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement states that:

"2. Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 [to hold a Referendum on Union] if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

The Irish understand all of this as meaning that if demographics or events should at any time persuade the majority of people in Northern Ireland to unite with the Republic of Ireland then a Referendum must be held to confirm the will of the people of Northern Ireland. The demographics mean that a Catholic majority is likely within a few years and events such as the creation of a large Remain caucus in NI mean that there is already a majority for Irish Union.

The Internal Market Bill 2020 is an attempt to quell the tide of support for secession in NI by making it clear that NI is a full part of the UK like Surrey or East Anglia. Unfortunately Tony Blair has already ceded Northern Ireland to the Republic, it is just a matter of time before this happens. There are two opinion polls that the Conservatives would do well to study:

Notice that people currently under 45 in NI want to join the Republic. In a decade a definite majority will be for Irish Union.

YouGov Poll

My advice would be for the Government to keep the Internal Market Bill as a threat but never to enact it. The UK ceded NI to the Republic in the Good Friday Agreement. Politics is about realism.

11/9/2020

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