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The World Today

Gold is at £1500 an ounce. A huge hike in the price of gold is always a sign of trouble.  We should all know that China is the biggest threat to global peace but the rest of the world is trying its best to compete.

The most interesting event is the threatened annexation of 30% of the West Bank by Israel.

Prime Minister Netanyahu may be fighting a November election on this plan.  The plan has been approved by Trump.  Superficially it looks like the dream solution for Israel, separating the Palestinian West Bank from Jordan and dicing and slicing the remnant.  Having been to much of the Middle East it is hard to imagine anything that could make the Arabs and Iranians hate Israel any more than they do but this might be the way to do it.

Staying with the Middle East, Turkey seems to be using the Coronavirus pandemic as a cover for asserting its power.  Turkey is the most powerful Islamic country, even taking into account Pakistan's nuclear missiles, and should not be underestimated.  Turkey is currently at loggerheads with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and considers the Kurds to be terrorists.  However the most interesting moves by the Turks are their military backing of the Tripoli Government (The GNA) in Libya and assertion of oil drilling rights in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey has troops on the ground in Libya and has reversed the advance of Tobruk based General Khalifa Haftar who is backed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE. Russia also seems to be backing Haftar, its Wagner Group, which was developed to fight deniably in the Ukraine, has been spotted in Libya as have Russian anti aircraft missiles.

Aljazeera. Libya: Mapping Areas of Military Control

Egypt is getting anxious about the Turkish advance and has threatened to put forces into Eastern Libya if Turkey takes Sirte.  Turkey means business and its navy even threatened a French navy vessel that was intent on stopping a probable arms carrying ship bound for Libya.

Turkey is not fond of Greece.  There are Greek islands along the west coast of Turkey that inhibit Turkey from oil and gas exploration. At the end of July Turkey announced that it was going to send a research vessel, the Oruc Reis, into the Aegean Sea and sent out naval vessels as a preliminary step. Greece was outraged. Tensions have since abated and the Oruc Reis is still in port. Update: the Oruc Reis is now at sea conducting oil and gas exploration.

The explosion in Beirut will change Lebanon.  Lebanon was already in a state of near collapse so the question is: what will follow?  The reflex is to assume that Russian/Iranian power is so strong that their client, The Party of God (Hezbollah), will assume power.  However Hezbollah is already in effective power and will be seen as the source of the corruption and bad government that caused the disaster.  Will Turkey ride to the rescue?

Elsewhere Argentina has just dodged an economic meltdown. The Falkland Islanders must be worried that they will be blamed.  Whether the deal to "save" Argentina will be enough or just presage another default is in the balance.

Venezuela goes from bad to worse.  The last drilling rig has just left the country which means that the nation with some of the largest oil reserves in the world now has fuel shortages and almost no oil revenues.  To pile on the pain a UK court has just ruled that Venezuela's $1bn gold reserves in London belong to the opposition leader Juan Guaido rather than the president Nicolas Maduro.  If Guaido can get his hands on this cash Maduro's days are probably numbered.


5/8/2020

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