Turkey is sending the EU thousands of migrants who are probably infected with coronavirus. The Turkish ultimatum is clear: "back us against Syria and Russia or accept the consequences".
It is easy to sympathise with the Turks. They have a full blown war on their southern border and have intervened in Idlib to stabilise the situation and keep internally displaced Syrians safe. The response of the Syrians and Russians has been to target and kill 55 Turkish soldiers over the past month. It now seems that the Turks have shot down two Syrian SU-24 warplanes.
There is no definite information on how the SU24s were shot down. The SU24 is no match for the F16s used by the Turkish airforce but both makes of plane are outdated. The more modern Russian SU35s outmatch F16s and are fortunately not in service with the Syrian airforce. But they are used by the Russians.
The Turks can defeat the Syrians but are outgunned by the Russians. We could blame this on the Turks who have been reluctant to replace weapons that they produce under license, such as the F16, with more modern hardware such as the Typhoon or Lockheed F35 Lightning. Such blame is probably misplaced because the Turks have always assumed that NATO, which is brimming with advanced hardware, would take up the slack if Turkey were attacked by Russia.
Will NATO intervene? The expulsion of migrants from Turkey into the EU is a good chess move, especially with coronavirus being such a danger. If the Russians engage in direct combat with Turkish forces it will be difficult for NATO to stand aside. Turkey is a frontline NATO member and the message that would be given to other members by ignoring the Turks in their hour of need would fatally damage NATO.
If a Russian SU35 shoots down a Turkish F16 I would expect NATO to issue an ultimatum to the Russians. The Russians will then withdraw.
However, life is unlikely to be so simple, it is possible that the Russians will arm the Syrians with more advanced surface to air missiles. NATO will then be prompted to lend AWACS and similar resources to counter this threat which will then expose NATO members to possible enemy fire. My expectation is that this will not happen - after all, what is Idlib province to Russia? Escalation cannot be in the Russian interest but reason is not always a faithful guide to future events.
If the Syrians continue to attack Idlib it is likely that the Turks will respond with ever greater force. The Turkish defence minister, Hulusi Akar, has announced operation "Spring Shield" in response to the latest attacks on Turkish troops. He said it had destroyed a drone, eight helicopters, 103 tanks, as well as rocket launchers and other military equipment.
Such losses are more than mere skirmishes. I would guess that the Syrian advance in Idlib will stop and the North Western provinces will be left to the Turks whilst the Syrians and Russians turn their attention to the Kurdish held areas in the North East. Who will help the Kurds?
1/03/2020
It is easy to sympathise with the Turks. They have a full blown war on their southern border and have intervened in Idlib to stabilise the situation and keep internally displaced Syrians safe. The response of the Syrians and Russians has been to target and kill 55 Turkish soldiers over the past month. It now seems that the Turks have shot down two Syrian SU-24 warplanes.
 |
| SU24 Fighter Bomber |
The Turks can defeat the Syrians but are outgunned by the Russians. We could blame this on the Turks who have been reluctant to replace weapons that they produce under license, such as the F16, with more modern hardware such as the Typhoon or Lockheed F35 Lightning. Such blame is probably misplaced because the Turks have always assumed that NATO, which is brimming with advanced hardware, would take up the slack if Turkey were attacked by Russia.
Will NATO intervene? The expulsion of migrants from Turkey into the EU is a good chess move, especially with coronavirus being such a danger. If the Russians engage in direct combat with Turkish forces it will be difficult for NATO to stand aside. Turkey is a frontline NATO member and the message that would be given to other members by ignoring the Turks in their hour of need would fatally damage NATO.
If a Russian SU35 shoots down a Turkish F16 I would expect NATO to issue an ultimatum to the Russians. The Russians will then withdraw.
However, life is unlikely to be so simple, it is possible that the Russians will arm the Syrians with more advanced surface to air missiles. NATO will then be prompted to lend AWACS and similar resources to counter this threat which will then expose NATO members to possible enemy fire. My expectation is that this will not happen - after all, what is Idlib province to Russia? Escalation cannot be in the Russian interest but reason is not always a faithful guide to future events.
If the Syrians continue to attack Idlib it is likely that the Turks will respond with ever greater force. The Turkish defence minister, Hulusi Akar, has announced operation "Spring Shield" in response to the latest attacks on Turkish troops. He said it had destroyed a drone, eight helicopters, 103 tanks, as well as rocket launchers and other military equipment.
1/03/2020
Comments