It is not that long now until Brexit finally happens. From September 2018 it is less than 3 months before the negotiations are over and 6 months until Brexit is done. The EU Parliament has the Withdrawal Agreement vote inked in for March 11th 2019 so it is unlikely that it can be delayed past then.
On 10 July 2018, Barnier announced that 80% of the Brexit deal was now complete. The most likely outcome is some form of customs collection away from the border in Northern Ireland and a Free Trade Agreement between the UK and EU. However, those who support UK membership of the EU will try to link Brexit into EU institutions like the Single Market and ECJ, a result that will not be acceptable to the EU and will create a furore in the UK.
Update 25/02/19: This article was written in August 2018. The Withdrawal Agreement has been approved by the EU and reviewed by the EU Parliamentary Committee but rejected by the UK Parliament. Small changes might still be possible, such as a time limit on the Northern Ireland Protocol, but large scale changes are not really feasible. The 12th March is inked in for the UK Parliamentary vote on an amended Withdrawal Agreement. After 14th March there is no scheduled EU Council or EU Parliament time for any changes before the expiry of Article 50 on 29th March.
The Timetable
May/June 2018
UK Parliament passes the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill. (The Bill has been passed).
October -December 2018
End of UK-EU negotiations on withdrawal and draft agreements published: a ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ and political declaration on ‘framework for the future relationship’. The EU Council has meetings without Agenda on 18/10/18 and 13-14/12/18, the next meeting is in March 2019.
October – December 2018
Agreement in principle in the European Council and request for European Parliament consent. The House of Commons votes on a resolution – the ‘meaningful vote’ – on both agreements (the ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ and ‘Framework for the future relationship’). The House of Lords then votes on a motion on both agreements. European Parliament’s Constitutional Affairs Committee reports on the withdrawal agreement. The latest date for agreement in principle is probably 14/12/18 which is the date of the end of the December EU Council Meeting.
November 2018-January 2019
The Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill introduced to the House of Commons (the vote on second reading to be a de facto second ’meaningful vote’).
November 2018-January 2019
The European Parliament has demanded a minimum of 2 months to process the agreement and has elections in May 2019. The start of January 2019 is absolutely the last date that the UK and EU Council can use to finish their approval of the Withdrawal Agreement. This is because the last moment to hold a vote would be a plenary session due March 11-14.
March 11th-14th 2019
According to Reuters the European Parliament votes on the Withdrawal Agreement.
End March 2019
Withdrawal agreement concluded by Council acting by a super qualified majority (20 of EU27).
March 2019
Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill passed (assuming Bill must be passed before exit to provide the necessary legal framework for transition/implementation period). Withdrawal Agreement ratified by UK in
accordance with the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010.
29 March 2019
The UK is expected to leave the EU.
30 March 2019
Transition/implementation period begins.
December 2020
EU wants transition period to end.
See http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7960
On 10 July 2018, Barnier announced that 80% of the Brexit deal was now complete. The most likely outcome is some form of customs collection away from the border in Northern Ireland and a Free Trade Agreement between the UK and EU. However, those who support UK membership of the EU will try to link Brexit into EU institutions like the Single Market and ECJ, a result that will not be acceptable to the EU and will create a furore in the UK.
Update 25/02/19: This article was written in August 2018. The Withdrawal Agreement has been approved by the EU and reviewed by the EU Parliamentary Committee but rejected by the UK Parliament. Small changes might still be possible, such as a time limit on the Northern Ireland Protocol, but large scale changes are not really feasible. The 12th March is inked in for the UK Parliamentary vote on an amended Withdrawal Agreement. After 14th March there is no scheduled EU Council or EU Parliament time for any changes before the expiry of Article 50 on 29th March.
The Timetable
May/June 2018
UK Parliament passes the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill. (The Bill has been passed).
October -December 2018
End of UK-EU negotiations on withdrawal and draft agreements published: a ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ and political declaration on ‘framework for the future relationship’. The EU Council has meetings without Agenda on 18/10/18 and 13-14/12/18, the next meeting is in March 2019.
October – December 2018
Agreement in principle in the European Council and request for European Parliament consent. The House of Commons votes on a resolution – the ‘meaningful vote’ – on both agreements (the ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ and ‘Framework for the future relationship’). The House of Lords then votes on a motion on both agreements. European Parliament’s Constitutional Affairs Committee reports on the withdrawal agreement. The latest date for agreement in principle is probably 14/12/18 which is the date of the end of the December EU Council Meeting.
November 2018-January 2019
The Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill introduced to the House of Commons (the vote on second reading to be a de facto second ’meaningful vote’).
November 2018-January 2019
The European Parliament has demanded a minimum of 2 months to process the agreement and has elections in May 2019. The start of January 2019 is absolutely the last date that the UK and EU Council can use to finish their approval of the Withdrawal Agreement. This is because the last moment to hold a vote would be a plenary session due March 11-14.
March 11th-14th 2019
According to Reuters the European Parliament votes on the Withdrawal Agreement.
End March 2019
Withdrawal agreement concluded by Council acting by a super qualified majority (20 of EU27).
March 2019
Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill passed (assuming Bill must be passed before exit to provide the necessary legal framework for transition/implementation period). Withdrawal Agreement ratified by UK in
accordance with the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010.
29 March 2019
The UK is expected to leave the EU.
30 March 2019
Transition/implementation period begins.
December 2020
EU wants transition period to end.
See http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7960
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