Here are some of the scariest graphs in the economic history of the past 120 years:
The Eurozone is not doing at all well:
None of these events are due to Brexit, they are about global economics. Beware of those who want to Remain in the EU, they will report global events as due to Brexit and the broadcast media, especially the BBC, will also lie.
So what is happening? Why isn't the global economy recovering from the 2008 crisis? The principal factors seem to be resource depletion and an ageing population.
Resource depletion does not mean "running out" of resources, it means that there is an increasing effort required to extract resources. A large number of minerals are now becoming harder to extract. The graph below shows the current availability of phosphorus:
This curve can be changed by improving extraction technology but this generally involves using other resources which are also depleting. As an example, electrical machinery needs copper and copper is also depleting:
Copper is projected to begin being ever harder to extract from today onwards. Even water is getting scarce:
Modelling the depletion of resources is very complex because resources all affect each other. As an example, we could propose that "peak copper" will not occur because new technologies will be used but on closer inspection these might require rare earth elements for magnets in machinery and huge amounts of oil and water, all of which are depleting resources. Even the prices of resources are not a guide because the pricing of resources becomes volatile rather than simply rising as they are depleted.
The ageing population is another reason for the "secular" decline in the world economy. An ageing population means that there are proportionately fewer people who are economically active and it also diverts capital from production.
Models that incorporate the interaction of all the factors are known as "Global Systems Models" and these make very pessimistic reading. See Limits to Growth
The green line in the graph above is particularly disturbing because in the 20th century it predicted what we can see is now happening in the graphs at the beginning of this article.
It is possible that all these warnings are wrong, that the world will stabilise with a steady population of seven billion people supported by cunningly contrived sustainable resources. However, if the GDP curve at the top of this article continues to fall in 2017 and 2018 we will know that collapse will happen. The next five years will tell us whether our future is collapse or stasis.
If the predictions of the global systems models come to pass we can blame the Globalisers, yes, people like the people who voted Remain in the EU Referendum with a holier-than-thou expression are the ones who would have destroyed our world. They have been taking a gigantic risk with the world economy and have dressed it up in their media as "doing good".
None of these events are due to Brexit, they are about global economics. Beware of those who want to Remain in the EU, they will report global events as due to Brexit and the broadcast media, especially the BBC, will also lie.
So what is happening? Why isn't the global economy recovering from the 2008 crisis? The principal factors seem to be resource depletion and an ageing population.
Resource depletion does not mean "running out" of resources, it means that there is an increasing effort required to extract resources. A large number of minerals are now becoming harder to extract. The graph below shows the current availability of phosphorus:
 |
| Peak Phosphorous Clarifying the Issues |
 |
| Business Insider: Peak Copper |
 |
| International Water Management Institute |
The ageing population is another reason for the "secular" decline in the world economy. An ageing population means that there are proportionately fewer people who are economically active and it also diverts capital from production.
Models that incorporate the interaction of all the factors are known as "Global Systems Models" and these make very pessimistic reading. See Limits to Growth
 |
| Limits to Growth. World3-03 Model. From the German Wikipedia - the red line is resource availability. |
The green line in the graph above is particularly disturbing because in the 20th century it predicted what we can see is now happening in the graphs at the beginning of this article.
It is possible that all these warnings are wrong, that the world will stabilise with a steady population of seven billion people supported by cunningly contrived sustainable resources. However, if the GDP curve at the top of this article continues to fall in 2017 and 2018 we will know that collapse will happen. The next five years will tell us whether our future is collapse or stasis.
If the predictions of the global systems models come to pass we can blame the Globalisers, yes, people like the people who voted Remain in the EU Referendum with a holier-than-thou expression are the ones who would have destroyed our world. They have been taking a gigantic risk with the world economy and have dressed it up in their media as "doing good".
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