Another one of those apocalyptic moments

We seem to be escaping trouble by tiny margins in recent years. The global economic meltdown and the arctic ice almost melting could have both dispatched us into some very nasty places. But we escaped - hooray!

Here is another one coming up. The Baltic Dry Index is at its lowest level ever. Yes, ever.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-global-shipping-rates-are-at-a-3-decade-low-2016-1?IR=T

The Baltic Dry Index monitors the demand for shipping of bulk goods. Shipping costs are falling as shipping capacity is falling so it is falling global demand for shipping that is to blame for the fall in shipping costs.

The Baltic Dry Index is mostly influenced by the shipping of commodities. Commodities are incredibly cheap by historical standards but demand for commodities is low. Why?

Whatever the reason, the Baltic Dry Index is ahead of other indicators, it falls before stock markets and before those companies that are failing, and hence failing to ship goods, actually fail.

So, does this presage disaster or is it yet another false alarm? I have no idea.

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