An Update of Data for the World3 Limits to Growth Model

The Limits to Growth has already been discussed (See Limits to Growth). The model predicts a possible global disaster occurring in 2015-16. (It hasn't happened yet - 2018 - and if it doesn't happen by 2022 there will be a clear departure from the predictions for a continuance of 1970 conditions of trade and production).

It is now 18 years since the last published "goodness of fit" for data to the model. How well is the model performing?

The industrial production data seemed to be spot on until end of 2018:

In the next 2-5 years we will see whether we slide down the right hand side of the green curve or experience the blue future.

The population predictions seem to have been far too optimistic (ie: pessimistic for Catholics and Mohammedans and Postmodernists).

The high population growth makes a collapse all the more probable.

Data Sources

The data was obtained from the World Bank and from the Dutch CPB Economic Policy Analysis World Trade Monitor.

World industrial production per capita is shown below:

Population growth was linear over the past 13 years and world population was 7,119,506,000 at the end of 2013. It was 6,102,050,000 in 2000.

I have just come across another paper by Turner updating the the Limits to Growth data: Turner, G. (2014) ‘Is Global Collapse Imminent?’, MSSI Research Paper No. 4,

Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of Melbourne.

http://www.sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/files/mssi/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf

This broadly agrees with the update given above.

06/04/2014 Updated April 2018

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