Now is the time for the Islanders, David Cameron and the Tories to wake up! A vote against Argentine rule provides a good negotiating position and this must be seized now.
The Argentines are Nationalist Socialists. They teach their children from an early age that "Las Malvinas" is the only foreign policy issue of any importance. They have even negotiated a deal with China where the Chinese will support them on the Falklands if they support the Chinese on Taiwan. The Argentines would sell their souls to get their hands on these rocks. This problem will not end until a negotiated solution is found.
There are two obvious solutions. The first is to offer a transition from British Overseas Territory to Argentine Overseas Territory with the same rights and privileges for the Islanders. A variation on this option is for the Falklands Government to get the UN to accept Free Association Status for the Falklands with Argentina or even with both Argentina and Britain. The second is to point out that West Falkland has always been recognised as British and to negotiate a deal where the Argentines get West Falkland and the Islanders do what they wish with East Falkland. The treaty arranging either of these deals would need to be guaranteed by NATO and the UN.
Postscript: The Falklands referendum result is now available (12/3/2013): 98.8% voted for the Falklands to remain a British Overseas Territory (1,517 people voted, 3 people voted against).
See: The Falklands have not always been Argentine
First published 11/3/13
There are two obvious solutions. The first is to offer a transition from British Overseas Territory to Argentine Overseas Territory with the same rights and privileges for the Islanders. A variation on this option is for the Falklands Government to get the UN to accept Free Association Status for the Falklands with Argentina or even with both Argentina and Britain. The second is to point out that West Falkland has always been recognised as British and to negotiate a deal where the Argentines get West Falkland and the Islanders do what they wish with East Falkland. The treaty arranging either of these deals would need to be guaranteed by NATO and the UN.
Postscript: The Falklands referendum result is now available (12/3/2013): 98.8% voted for the Falklands to remain a British Overseas Territory (1,517 people voted, 3 people voted against).
See: The Falklands have not always been Argentine
First published 11/3/13
Comments
fernandez' failing economy needs all the money to bribe the mainlanders. and it wouldn't surprise me if the gringos were left without argentine investment to the point where it became preferable to leave. a de facto ethnic cleansing. they do have form on this after all.
why on earth would they want to negotiate?
The Argentines will not give up their false claim because in 1982 they lost lives and face supporting it. If there are no negotiations people will die again.
That's absolutely crazy.
Giving the Argentines any part of the Falklands would just legitimize their claim, and it would hand them a real argument where currently they have none. At the moment there's no real basis to their claim at all. But if we gave them half the islands they would suddenly have a real argument - that the Falklands were now artificially split, and that we should re-unite them by handing the rest over. They would argue that handing West Falkland over was an admission that they had a valid claim.
The only long term solution to this is that the Argentines drop their claim. It's absurd, and is impossible for a democratic country to justify in the 21st century. The more time goes by the more absurd it will seem to the rest of the world - the islanders have been there nearly 200 years as it is. Eventually the Falklands will probably become independent with their security guaranteed by Britain and that will end the farce of Argentina going to the UN Decolonization Committe every year. Younger Argentinians care less and less about the Falklands or about the war, and in the internet age it's harder to keep the basic facts from people. Young Argentinians do at least know now that the islanders don't much like them and are not desperate to be "re-united", and the more educated people in Argentina are slowly coming round to the idea that the islanders have the right to self-determination.
I would not be in favour of any settlement that did not have cast iron guarantees from NATO, OAS and UN. If Argentina reneged on any deal the deal should have have made it clear that they would be punished, like Irag after it invaded Kuwait.
I have been to Argentina, I have even danced the Tango in Buenos Aires, the Argentines are like you and me despite their political tendency to fascism. Perhaps if they were to accept a very limited sovereignty over the Falklands it would decrease their fascism and allow the Islanders to rest easy in their beds at night. In the long run Argentina might become a calm democracy and would benefit from a virtually independent Falkland Islands that would, eventually, when it felt secure again, have ever increasing ties with Argentina.
The Islanders have a strong position right now and should use it whilst it is fresh.
Northern Ireland is not in any way a comparable situation. There is no real threat of war in the South Atlantic. The Argentinians have rejected that course, and don't appear to have the capability to take the islands by force any more, even if they wanted to. There is no need to appease them, and no honourable way the British can do so.
I agree the Argentinians are like you and me which is why, eventually, they will mature as a democracy and realise the absurdity of this claim. A group of Spanish colonists cannot continue to argue with a straight face that the Falkland Islanders don't have the right to self-determiniation because they are not the original population. This whole Argentinian claim is an elaborate fantasy that requires an enormous amount of self-delusion to keep it going. That is why in the long run the Argentinians will just have to let it go. Its the only mature, sensible and realistic thing for them to do. Eventually their claim will whither and die, and the Falklands will probably be an independent nation.
Look at Britain's position:
It has possession of the islands 100%
It has the legal claim to the islands
It has the moral claim to the islands based on its peaceful and successful stewardship and investment over 180 years
It has the support of the islanders themselves
It has the military capability to enforce its claim against aggression if necessary
The last time it fought a war over the islands it won
Now look at Argentina
It is not in possession of any part of the islands
It has no legal claim to the islands
It has no moral claim to the islands
It doesn't have the support of the islanders themselves
It doesn't have the military capability to take the islands by force
It doesn't appear to have the will to take the islands by force anymore
The last time it fought a war over the islands it lost
Which of the two needs to compromise and make concessions? The country that won the war or the country that lost? The country that holds all the cards or the one that has only hot air? The country with possession of the islands or the country with nothing?
This issue keeps coming up only because it is useful to Argentinian politicians to keep raising it when they're in trouble domestically. But if they keep pushing the issue without making any progress, the Argentine public will tire of it. That is why no concessions should ever be made. If the Argentine government gets concessions from the British now, the next time they want to win some popularity at home they will come back for more. If you gave them joint sovereignty they would soon be claiming they should have full sovereignty. If you gave them West Falkland, they would then want East Falkland. Even if you gave them full sovereignty over the Falklands, they would soon be demanding South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands. Appeasement never works, and it will not work over the Falklands.
It doesn't seem to have occurred to you that your "solutions" involve almost total British surrender. That's what handing over West Falkland or making the islands an Argentinian Overseas Territory would mean. That's not my idea, or probably anyone else's idea, of taking advantage of a strong position.
I personally would not trust the Argentinians with any kind of authority over the islands, especially as it eyes the natural resources so enviously. Making the Falklands an AOT would also certainly not be acceptable to the islanders, and extremely unlikely to be acceptable to the British public, no matter how "virtually independent" the islands are. If they want independence without the threat of Argentinian overlords, they can always take that route in the future if they want it. Argentina's position couldn't possibly be any weaker. They pose no credible threat, and have nothing to offer Britain or the islanders that they don't already have. There's no reason at all to even contemplate doing any kind of deal with them, and certainly not the near total surrender you advocate.
Although Argentina will claim that it cannot have a consulate in its national territory, just as China did not have consulates in Hong Kong and Macau, India had a consulate-general in Goa when it was under Portuguese rule, even though it claimed Goa, and 'liberated' it in 1961. As it happens, Argentina’s Admiral Jorge Anaya named his plan to invade the Falklands ‘Plan Goa’, thinking that Britain would not put up a fight any more than Portugual did.
It will have to. There can't be friendly relations until the islanders feel they are not threatened by Argentina. Even as a democracy Argentina has acted disgracefully towards the islanders. Only this year their Government has attempted to take their land from them, denied them their democratic rights, and called them squatters. The road towards friendly relations with the islanders is one Argentina has constantly chosen not to take. If it takes another 200 years then it will be entirely their fault.
As to any agreement being guaranteed by world powers, you can forget about that. The rest of the world doesn't care about the Falklands, we can't even get them to accept they have the right to self-determination. They certainly won't step in when Argentina goes back on its word, something which will surprise no-one.