The referendum debate is entirely about sovereignty, if sovereignty were
not affected the UK could just ignore the EU at a whim and no
referendum would be needed. Does it make any difference whether you are governed from Brussels or Westminster?
Suppose, in 20 years time, there had been a "Remain" vote in 2016 and the desires of about 26 of the 28 countries in the EU had been fulfilled so that there is a full political union in the EU (See Note 1). Would this make a difference?
Until recently, if there were a decision on Foreign Affairs or Defence the Westminster Parliament would act in the interests of the UK. Since 2014 the EU has been responsible for Foreign Policy and Security Policy. As a result our entire focus in Foreign affairs is on the Eastern borders of the EU, where it abuts other powers. What goes on in the East is of extreme interest to the Germans, Poles, Baltic and Balkan States but actually of far less consequence here in the UK. Of course, our Media lap up this dangerous friction with Russia and the Islamic world that the EU creates but neglect to tell us that we could be bystanders. We could be fairly safely out of it and even work to calm the situation if we were independent. (Click if you don't believe EU looks East)
The important feature of an EU governed Foreign Affairs and Defence is that it does not work in the interests of the UK, or even in the interests of the whole EU, EU defence is about the Eastern border and always will be. The UK's interests need it to look outwards but the EU will always look eastwards. The EU focus has become so all-pervasive - because the EU runs foreign policy - that many British people now also believe that all the action is on the EU borders, ignoring Africa, Asia and the Americas.
There is another aspect to EU defence. Only the UK has seriously opposed an EU Defence Force that merges the armies of the EU (click on link to check). After political union the UK will be unable to oppose the merger of the British Army with EU armies. There will also, eventually be a pan EU police force - this is what political union means.
German companies see it as quite normal to instruct their workforce how to vote - like the Squires of Olde England. As German company culture spreads across the UK this practice will also spread, it will be normal because it happens across the EU. The British will forget that the key to real, stable, democracy is that each elector must come to their own, tolerant solution, uninfluenced by power. A British citizen was an individual. In the EU the citizens enjoy marching together, as one.
If there is a decision on a medium to large-sized project such as a motorway or a nuclear power station under the Westminster Government five or ten local MPs will make representations at Westminster and to their parties. Most of those in the Westminster Parliament will have visited the affected area at some time in their lives and will share attitudes to different types of project. On the other hand, if the European Parliament is taking a decision only 9.7% of the MEPs come from the UK which means that over 90% of MEPs will have no idea of national opinions or any idea at all about regional and local opinions. (The EU already gets involved in medium sized projects across Europe - see The Ghost Airports of Spain).
There can be no doubt at all that after a remain vote the pressure will be inexorable for the UK to join the Euro. Whatever the exemptions gained by Cameron, using the pound and being governed by Brussels will be incompatible. It may take 20 years but when it happens the current Treaties are crystal clear, the EU will control the UK economy (Check this in Treaty section on Euro). London will have no advantage over Frankfurt and our entire Financial Services industry will drift slowly eastwards. Financial Services always eventually lodge near the centre of power(see Stock exchange merger). EU industrial policy will deal with the UK as a region and encourage regional industry and specialization, as it does in many EU countries today. After a Remain vote it will become increasingly difficult to maintain that any particular industry is of strategic importance for the UK. If the steel industry is failing it would be possible to point to other steel makers in Germany and to say "let the UK steel industry close, the EU still has steel making capability". Only the EU as a whole has strategic industries now. Slowly the UK will become specialised in a few areas of production.
This will mean that if the specialised industry in the UK falters the whole country will be impoverished. Brussels will be calm about this - it would just be the UK region in temporary trouble.
The EU already has considerable influence in education and this will rapidly escalate. It is highly advantageous for EU cohesion for the EU to move students all over the continent - this is already happening in the Erasmus program - so expect the EU to take charge of higher education. Don't expect the professor of the future to be a British eccentric, they will conform to the Franco-German system and value order over creativity and academic freedom.
Many EU countries have labile politics and a very evil, recent history of racism. When Angela Merkel proposed that Germany open its doors to migrants 60% of the Germans supported her, within 3 months 60% were against her and there are large demonstrations against migrants in Germany. The EU Parliament is about to swing to the Right in the next EU elections and seriously racist parties are gaining strength in the EU. The British Left seem to imagine that the EU will be permanently left-wing, but nothing in politics is permanent and the EU is currently so far left it can only swing Right. Suppose migrants were being expelled from London by armed EU troops how would 8.5% representation on the EU Council allow the UK to say "No"? The UK is a stable, established democracy with centuries of history, that is far less inclined to major, labile swings of opinion than EU countries. Many European countries have been democracies for scarcely a generation, be certain that they will revert towards authoritarianism given time.
This mention of the recent past may be distasteful to some but after a Remain vote in the referendum and the political union that will follow we, and later our children, will be living in a wider society that has a record of swinging to the extreme. The UK will only have 8.5% of the vote in Council and will be swept away if it all goes wrong. The EEC kept this possibility in check, the voice of even one nation could stop extremist swings, but a politically united EU is a different entity entirely. The UK is stifled.
If you like this article use the buttons at the bottom to share it with your friends or email a link to them. They need you to do this because the media won't tell them.
Consider this statement: "Among foreigners, English people are known for being very indifferent, or tolerant, to other people’s choices in life, be it how you are dressed or whether your partner is from a different ethnic origin. It is quite common to meet mixed race French couples in London: is it because the pressure of the society is less evident or is it just a coincidence? Nobody really speaks about it openly." Living as a mixed race couple
Most EU countries have contributory systems of welfare. You get out what you put in and the UK will be forced to adopt this system to cope with EU free movement of labour. The NHS will not survive two decades of full political union and the imposition of TTIP. It will be seen as anti-competitive both within the EU and from without.
Most EU countries have State controlled judges and scarcely use juries, or, like Germany, have no juries at all. The British system of Common Law is incompatible with Romano-Dutch Law and the Code Napoleon, which work by regulation. Expect to be fully controlled by the EU State after full union.
In a full political union the UK will be gone. You and I will not be stronger, we will be one voice in 600 million and scarcely heard. The loss of the UK will be a disaster for the world, not just you and I. A particular approach to life that valued individuality, independence and freedom will be lost.
This referendum is about your children and their children. Will you terminate their birthright to their own country? Are you really so sure that all marching together in the EU, stamping out the diverse nations of this continent, is holy?
Lastly, the UN, NATO, WTO etc deal with the general international relations of the UK. They were set up by the victorious Allies to govern post-war international relations. The EU was set up by the Allies for an entirely different purpose. A political union with the EU deals with internal government. It is entirely different. When people raise the UN etc. as examples of loss of sovereignty it shows that they are unaware of the sovereignty issue or simply obfuscating.
See also Membership of the EU: Pros and Cons
Suppose, in 20 years time, there had been a "Remain" vote in 2016 and the desires of about 26 of the 28 countries in the EU had been fulfilled so that there is a full political union in the EU (See Note 1). Would this make a difference?
Until recently, if there were a decision on Foreign Affairs or Defence the Westminster Parliament would act in the interests of the UK. Since 2014 the EU has been responsible for Foreign Policy and Security Policy. As a result our entire focus in Foreign affairs is on the Eastern borders of the EU, where it abuts other powers. What goes on in the East is of extreme interest to the Germans, Poles, Baltic and Balkan States but actually of far less consequence here in the UK. Of course, our Media lap up this dangerous friction with Russia and the Islamic world that the EU creates but neglect to tell us that we could be bystanders. We could be fairly safely out of it and even work to calm the situation if we were independent. (Click if you don't believe EU looks East)
The important feature of an EU governed Foreign Affairs and Defence is that it does not work in the interests of the UK, or even in the interests of the whole EU, EU defence is about the Eastern border and always will be. The UK's interests need it to look outwards but the EU will always look eastwards. The EU focus has become so all-pervasive - because the EU runs foreign policy - that many British people now also believe that all the action is on the EU borders, ignoring Africa, Asia and the Americas.
There is another aspect to EU defence. Only the UK has seriously opposed an EU Defence Force that merges the armies of the EU (click on link to check). After political union the UK will be unable to oppose the merger of the British Army with EU armies. There will also, eventually be a pan EU police force - this is what political union means.
German companies see it as quite normal to instruct their workforce how to vote - like the Squires of Olde England. As German company culture spreads across the UK this practice will also spread, it will be normal because it happens across the EU. The British will forget that the key to real, stable, democracy is that each elector must come to their own, tolerant solution, uninfluenced by power. A British citizen was an individual. In the EU the citizens enjoy marching together, as one.
If there is a decision on a medium to large-sized project such as a motorway or a nuclear power station under the Westminster Government five or ten local MPs will make representations at Westminster and to their parties. Most of those in the Westminster Parliament will have visited the affected area at some time in their lives and will share attitudes to different types of project. On the other hand, if the European Parliament is taking a decision only 9.7% of the MEPs come from the UK which means that over 90% of MEPs will have no idea of national opinions or any idea at all about regional and local opinions. (The EU already gets involved in medium sized projects across Europe - see The Ghost Airports of Spain).
There can be no doubt at all that after a remain vote the pressure will be inexorable for the UK to join the Euro. Whatever the exemptions gained by Cameron, using the pound and being governed by Brussels will be incompatible. It may take 20 years but when it happens the current Treaties are crystal clear, the EU will control the UK economy (Check this in Treaty section on Euro). London will have no advantage over Frankfurt and our entire Financial Services industry will drift slowly eastwards. Financial Services always eventually lodge near the centre of power(see Stock exchange merger). EU industrial policy will deal with the UK as a region and encourage regional industry and specialization, as it does in many EU countries today. After a Remain vote it will become increasingly difficult to maintain that any particular industry is of strategic importance for the UK. If the steel industry is failing it would be possible to point to other steel makers in Germany and to say "let the UK steel industry close, the EU still has steel making capability". Only the EU as a whole has strategic industries now. Slowly the UK will become specialised in a few areas of production.
This will mean that if the specialised industry in the UK falters the whole country will be impoverished. Brussels will be calm about this - it would just be the UK region in temporary trouble.
The EU already has considerable influence in education and this will rapidly escalate. It is highly advantageous for EU cohesion for the EU to move students all over the continent - this is already happening in the Erasmus program - so expect the EU to take charge of higher education. Don't expect the professor of the future to be a British eccentric, they will conform to the Franco-German system and value order over creativity and academic freedom.
Many EU countries have labile politics and a very evil, recent history of racism. When Angela Merkel proposed that Germany open its doors to migrants 60% of the Germans supported her, within 3 months 60% were against her and there are large demonstrations against migrants in Germany. The EU Parliament is about to swing to the Right in the next EU elections and seriously racist parties are gaining strength in the EU. The British Left seem to imagine that the EU will be permanently left-wing, but nothing in politics is permanent and the EU is currently so far left it can only swing Right. Suppose migrants were being expelled from London by armed EU troops how would 8.5% representation on the EU Council allow the UK to say "No"? The UK is a stable, established democracy with centuries of history, that is far less inclined to major, labile swings of opinion than EU countries. Many European countries have been democracies for scarcely a generation, be certain that they will revert towards authoritarianism given time.
This mention of the recent past may be distasteful to some but after a Remain vote in the referendum and the political union that will follow we, and later our children, will be living in a wider society that has a record of swinging to the extreme. The UK will only have 8.5% of the vote in Council and will be swept away if it all goes wrong. The EEC kept this possibility in check, the voice of even one nation could stop extremist swings, but a politically united EU is a different entity entirely. The UK is stifled.
 |
| A Sovereign UK has been the source and saviour of European freedom |
Consider this statement: "Among foreigners, English people are known for being very indifferent, or tolerant, to other people’s choices in life, be it how you are dressed or whether your partner is from a different ethnic origin. It is quite common to meet mixed race French couples in London: is it because the pressure of the society is less evident or is it just a coincidence? Nobody really speaks about it openly." Living as a mixed race couple
Most EU countries have contributory systems of welfare. You get out what you put in and the UK will be forced to adopt this system to cope with EU free movement of labour. The NHS will not survive two decades of full political union and the imposition of TTIP. It will be seen as anti-competitive both within the EU and from without.
Most EU countries have State controlled judges and scarcely use juries, or, like Germany, have no juries at all. The British system of Common Law is incompatible with Romano-Dutch Law and the Code Napoleon, which work by regulation. Expect to be fully controlled by the EU State after full union.
In a full political union the UK will be gone. You and I will not be stronger, we will be one voice in 600 million and scarcely heard. The loss of the UK will be a disaster for the world, not just you and I. A particular approach to life that valued individuality, independence and freedom will be lost.
This referendum is about your children and their children. Will you terminate their birthright to their own country? Are you really so sure that all marching together in the EU, stamping out the diverse nations of this continent, is holy?
Lastly, the UN, NATO, WTO etc deal with the general international relations of the UK. They were set up by the victorious Allies to govern post-war international relations. The EU was set up by the Allies for an entirely different purpose. A political union with the EU deals with internal government. It is entirely different. When people raise the UN etc. as examples of loss of sovereignty it shows that they are unaware of the sovereignty issue or simply obfuscating.
See also Membership of the EU: Pros and Cons
Note 1: All the important players in Europe are moving towards full political union.
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor said:
"we need a political union first and foremost" (BBC News).
Francois Hollande, the French president said:
"Political union is the step that follows fiscal union, banking union, and social union. It will provide a democratic framework for successful integration." (Le Monde)
President Sergio Mattarella of Italy's inaugural speech Feb 2015:
"The EU is now once again a perspective of hope and true political union to be relaunched without delay."
Mariano Rajoy Brey, Spanish prime minister:
"We need to fix these objectives - fiscal union, banking union, political union...And we must set a time scale. We are giving a message that we really want greater European integration. We can't say something is this first, then something else, without saying where we're going," Rajoy said at a news conference with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. (Reuters report).
What the European Commission says:
José Manuel Durão Barroso, President of the European Commission said:
"This is why the Economic and Monetary Union raises the question of a political union and the European democracy that must underpin it."...
.."A deep and genuine economic and monetary union, a political union, with a coherent foreign and defence policy, means ultimately that the present European Union must evolve." (State of the Union 2012 Address to the European Parliament on 12 September 2012).
The EU's Blueprint for a deep and genuine economic and monetary union (and political union) states that:
"This Blueprint for a Deep and Genuine EMU describes the necessary
elements and the steps towards a full banking, economic, fiscal and political union."
What the European Central Bank says:
1999 paper by the European Central Bank: Europe: Common Money - Political Union? In this paper it says that:
"The monetary order established by the Maastricht Treaty with the detailed statute of the European System of Central Banks by itself represents an important building block for the development of a European statehood."
The importance of the connection between monetary union and the establishment of a single state was well understood at the new European Central Bank in 1999:
"So what does the future hold? Anyone who believes in the role of a single currency as a pace-setter in achieving political unity (Europe will be created by means of a single currency or not at all (Jacques Rueff 1950)) will regard the decisive step as has having already been taken. This does not provide an answer as to how the "rest" of the journey should be approached. "
How does the European Central Bank see the current Euro crisis evolving? Here is an extract from an ECB approved presentation on the subject, Short Term Crisis Management and Long Term Vision, describing the 4 steps to a solution:
"we need a political union first and foremost" (BBC News).
Francois Hollande, the French president said:
"Political union is the step that follows fiscal union, banking union, and social union. It will provide a democratic framework for successful integration." (Le Monde)
President Sergio Mattarella of Italy's inaugural speech Feb 2015:
"The EU is now once again a perspective of hope and true political union to be relaunched without delay."
Mariano Rajoy Brey, Spanish prime minister:
"We need to fix these objectives - fiscal union, banking union, political union...And we must set a time scale. We are giving a message that we really want greater European integration. We can't say something is this first, then something else, without saying where we're going," Rajoy said at a news conference with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. (Reuters report).
What the European Commission says:
José Manuel Durão Barroso, President of the European Commission said:
"This is why the Economic and Monetary Union raises the question of a political union and the European democracy that must underpin it."...
.."A deep and genuine economic and monetary union, a political union, with a coherent foreign and defence policy, means ultimately that the present European Union must evolve." (State of the Union 2012 Address to the European Parliament on 12 September 2012).
The EU's Blueprint for a deep and genuine economic and monetary union (and political union) states that:
"This Blueprint for a Deep and Genuine EMU describes the necessary
elements and the steps towards a full banking, economic, fiscal and political union."
What the European Central Bank says:
1999 paper by the European Central Bank: Europe: Common Money - Political Union? In this paper it says that:
"The monetary order established by the Maastricht Treaty with the detailed statute of the European System of Central Banks by itself represents an important building block for the development of a European statehood."
The importance of the connection between monetary union and the establishment of a single state was well understood at the new European Central Bank in 1999:
"So what does the future hold? Anyone who believes in the role of a single currency as a pace-setter in achieving political unity (Europe will be created by means of a single currency or not at all (Jacques Rueff 1950)) will regard the decisive step as has having already been taken. This does not provide an answer as to how the "rest" of the journey should be approached. "
How does the European Central Bank see the current Euro crisis evolving? Here is an extract from an ECB approved presentation on the subject, Short Term Crisis Management and Long Term Vision, describing the 4 steps to a solution:
The first is a financial union, with a single framework for supervising and resolving banks and for insuring customer deposits. This would build on the single supervisory mechanism now under development and ideally lead to a European version of the FDIC, financed by contributions from the private sector.
The second building block is a fiscal union, with powers at the euro area level to prevent unsustainable fiscal policies and to limit national debt issuance. With these powers in place, a path towards common debt issuance would also be possible, but only at the end of the process.
The third building block is an economic union, which would help euro area members to remain fit and to adjust flexibly within monetary union. This could entail, for example, moving from soft coordination of structural reforms in Member States to an enforceable framework at the euro area level.
And the fourth building block is a political union, which aims at strengthening democratic participation. This final building block is equally important, as the other measures cannot be effective unless they are legitimate. This requires innovative thinking as regards the involvement of the European Parliament and national parliaments in decision-making on euro area issues.
22/2/16
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