Economic Forecasts for Brexit are now Positive

The IMF World Economic Outlook (2017 update) now considers that Brexit will have little effect on the UK economy.

UK GDP growth is now expected to be similar to that of large EU economies:

Compare this with the false, scaremongering predictions given by the IMF before the EU Referendum in the IMF UK Selected Issues Report June 2016 (the UK is adopting what the IMF called the "Adverse Scenario"):

Notice that IMF and all the other Remain economists focussed on the period between the Referendum and Brexit (2017/2018). They all actually predicted good growth after a WTO Brexit - see What Remain economists actually said.

Other economists are now coming round to the idea that Brexit will be fine and not an economic disaster after all. In 2016 the Economist was predicting doom but now, in 2017, economists such as the Saturday Economist predict good growth for the UK:

Saturday Economist

Even the Bank of England now predicts c. 2% growth in 2017 - do you remember their post referendum forecast of 0.8% or less?

It is astonishing that the Remain media are still reporting inflation returning to around the 2% level as a Brexit catastrophe. They should remind their readers that 2% is an optimal target level for inflation used over the past decade and that the OBR was predicting 2% inflation for 2017 in July 2015!

The full predictions in the "IMF World Economic Outlook" are given below:

Comments

The Falklands have always been Argentine - Las Malvinas son Argentinas

"The Falklands have always been Argentine" is taught to every Argentine child as a matter of faith. What was Argentina during the time when it "always" possessed Las Malvinas? In this article I will trace the history of Argentina in the context of its physical and political relationship with "Las Malvinas", the Falkland Islands. The Argentine claim to the Falkland Islands dates from a brief episode in 1831-32 so it is like Canada claiming the USA despite two centuries of separate development. This might sound like ancient history but Argentina has gone to war for this ancient claim so the following article is well worth reading. For a summary of the legal case see: Las Malvinas: The Legal Case Argentina traces its origins to Spanish South America when it was part of the Viceroyalty of the Rio del Plata. The Falklands lay off the Viceroyalty of Peru, controlled by the Captain General of Chile. In 1810 the Falklands were far from the geographical b...

The Roots of New Labour

This article was written in 2009 but is still useful to understand the motivation behind New Labour - from the global financial crisis through the over-regulated, surveillance society to the break up of the UK into nationalities. The past lives of Labour Ministers have long been sanitised and many biographies that include their shady communist and Marxist pasts are inaccessible or removed from the net. The truth about these guys is similar to discovering that leading Tories were members of the Nazi Party. If you are a British voter and do not think that this is important then I despair for British politics. Had these people taken jobs in industry their past might be forgotten and forgiven but they continued in left wing politics and even today boast of being "Stalinist" or International Socialist (or in Blair's case, Trotskyist ). Peter Mandelson (first Secretary of State and Labour Supremo): "Mr Mandelson was born into a Labour family - his grandfather wa...

Do Muslim women want to wear the Burka (Burqua)?

Do all islamic women want to wear burka? Can a woman's freedom to wear what she wants oppress other women? Are western feminists aiding a cult that is dedicated to the destruction of feminism? I hope to answer these questions in this article. I would much appreciate any comments you might have if you disagree with the article, especially if you have a feminist viewpoint. Here is a description of the problems of wearing burka by a woman of Asian origin: "Of course, many veiled Muslim women argue that, far from being forced to wear burkas by ruthless husbands, they do so out of choice. And I have to take them at their word. But it is also very apparent that many women are forced behind the veil. A number of them have turned up at my door seeking refuge from their fathers, mothers, brothers and in-laws - men brain-washed by religious leaders who use physical and mental abuse to compel the girls to cover up. It started with the headscarf, then went to th...

Political Thoughts - the magazine

Search This Blog