The EU Referendum in the UK has been called in 2016 because in 2017 the Eurozone countries will embark on Stage 2 of their union (EMU Stage 2). Stage 2 moves them towards full political union and will, within about 8 years (2025) create what is effectively a single country out of the 26 states that are in, or about to join the Euro.
All the important players in Europe are moving towards political union.
If 26 out of 28 countries want full union then all that the UK can do within the EU is to slow down assimilation. Eventually we will be absorbed. The chances of a referendum to exit the EU will be very slight once the UK loses its government. The most amazing feature of the EU is that the British media tell you that this is not the nature of the European Union. Check out the links:
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor said:
"we need a political union first and foremost" (BBC News).
Francois Hollande, the French president said:
"Political union is the step that follows fiscal union, banking union, and social union. It will provide a democratic framework for successful integration." (Le Monde)
President Sergio Mattarella of Italy's inaugural speech Feb 2015:
"The EU is now once again a perspective of hope and true political union to be relaunched without delay."
Mariano Rajoy Brey, Spanish prime minister:
"We need to fix these objectives - fiscal union, banking union, political union...And we must set a time scale. We are giving a message that we really want greater European integration. We can't say something is this first, then something else, without saying where we're going," Rajoy said at a news conference with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. (Reuters report).
What the European Commission says:
José Manuel Durão Barroso, President of the European Commission said:
"This is why the Economic and Monetary Union raises the question of a political union and the European democracy that must underpin it."...
.."A deep and genuine economic and monetary union, a political union, with a coherent foreign and defence policy, means ultimately that the present European Union must evolve." (State of the Union 2012 Address to the European Parliament on 12 September 2012).
The EU's Blueprint for a deep and genuine economic and monetary union (and political union) states that:
"This Blueprint for a Deep and Genuine EMU describes the necessary
elements and the steps towards a full banking, economic, fiscal and political union."
What the European Central Bank says:
1999 paper by the European Central Bank: Europe: Common Money - Political Union? In this paper it says that:
"The monetary order established by the Maastricht Treaty with the detailed statute of the European System of Central Banks by itself represents an important building block for the development of a European statehood."
The importance of the connection between monetary union and the establishment of a single state was well understood at the new European Central Bank in 1999:
"So what does the future hold? Anyone who believes in the role of a single currency as a pace-setter in achieving political unity (Europe will be created by means of a single currency or not at all (Jacques Rueff 1950)) will regard the decisive step as has having already been taken. This does not provide an answer as to how the "rest" of the journey should be approached. "
How does the European Central Bank see the current Euro crisis evolving? Here is an extract from an ECB approved presentation on the subject, Short Term Crisis Management and Long Term Vision, describing the 4 steps to a solution:
The Ukraine is already an Associate of the EU. Turkey was considered for membership. Not only would Ukrainians and Turks eventually be able to settle in the UK but this will hugely increase the tension with Russia. The EU is dangerously expansionist.
Are we really joining a full political union?
The Treaties on the European Union are about union. The EU almost got to its final political union in 2004 with the Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe. Be under no illusions, this treaty almost happened, it was ratified by eighteen countries but referendums in the Netherlands and France rejected the Constitution.
The EU introduced the Lisbon Treaty as a temporary replacement for the Constitution. The Lisbon Treaty was a "lite" version of the Constitution in which many of the specific proposals in the Constitution were replaced with general intentions to move towards ever closer union. However, Lisbon is a large step on the way to full union and contains entire sections of the Constitution copied word for word but renamed "The Lisbon Treaty".
How much self-government would remain after full political union?
The EU reserves to itself the right to have competence for almost all areas of government but in the absence of having exercised this right the member states may exercise government. This idea of reserving the right to govern is known as "shared competence". It allows the EU to quietly take over almost all areas of government without further Treaties (Don't believe this? See The European Union - What happened on 1st November 2014).
The EU will be also be able to change its areas of competence if there is a vote in the EU Council to do so. The UK has only 8.5% of the vote in the EU Council and so cannot resist any change. There is no veto for this. If Scotland were alone in the EU it would have 1% of the vote - almost no voice at all.
What has been learnt from the Refugee/Migrant Crisis?
When an issue looks universally popular the EU Council can take decisions but when the going gets tough the Council dithers and leaves the Nation States to pick up the pieces. This happened in the refugee crisis: the EU had clear responsibility for external borders but could not cope when events became difficult. The only way the EU will be able to avoid this paralysis in the long run is if the EU Council becomes structured with a true presidency, or even replaced by a presidency, that can issue commands (There are already plans for a Presidency based on the Commission - see Spinelli Group and A New EU Constitution: The Fundamental Law of the EU).
What areas of Government are reserved to the EU by the Constitution itself?
Defence: controlled by EU apart from existing commitments to NATO, the EU would be in control of defence planning and operations.
Foreign Policy: controlled by EU: "1. In the context of the principles and objectives of its external action, the Union shall define and implement a common foreign and security policy covering all areas of foreign and security policy. 2. The Member States shall support the common foreign and security policy actively and unreservedly in a spirit of loyalty and mutual solidarity."
Given that the UK would no longer have any official voice outside the EU and would be a tiny minority in the EU Council, full political union would erase the voice of the UK from the world.
Currency: It is intended that, in the long term, all member states will adopt the Euro. The UK and Denmark can opt out as long as they desire but some of the Constitution is framed with wording such as " pending the Euro becoming the currency of all Member States of the Union".
Economic Policy: controlled by EU: "2. The Council, on a recommendation from the Commission, shall formulate a draft for the broad guidelines of the economic policies of the Member States and of the Union, and shall report its findings to the European Council." Once inside the Eurozone the EU dictates much of the minutiae of economic policy, as has been seen with Greece in recent years.
Social Security: harmonized by EU: "in the field of social security, European laws or framework laws shall establish such measures as are necessary to bring about freedom of movement for workers by making arrangements to secure for employed and self-employed migrant workers and their dependants". This has wide ramifications, especially as regards non-contributory benefits (ie: much of the UK Social Security system).
Law: The European Court of Justice is the final appeal court for EU Regulations and Laws, not the courts of member states. New laws will increasingly be pan-European.
Education: Pro-EU courses to be taught: "(a) developing the European dimension in education, particularly through the teaching and dissemination of the languages of the Member States;" In fact EU intervention in education goes much further, for instance all states are bound by EU Council to attain the benchmarks in education and there are a large number of EU organisations and projects to control education .
Health: EU has control of health and safety and working conditions. The non-contributory nature of the NHS is probably incompatible with free movement.
In fact Lisbon already contains the powers to implement most of these provisions but does not state them as clearly as the Constitution. The net result of all these changes that are in the pipeline is the termination of the UK as an independent state.
Most pro-EU supporters acknowledge that the UK must obey EU directives on all of the matters which they might consider to be beneficial. The EU has been sovereign in many areas since 1993 and has passed regulations that may or may not have been passed as laws by the UK government. The key feature here is that the EU was SOVEREIGN in these areas, not the UK, and EU supporters admit it. However, ask a pro-EU supporter as to whether the EU is sovereign in any area that they do not like and they will reply that the UK is not bound by the EU!
The Trades Union "Unite" uses the poster reproduced above to campaign for the EU. The regulations in the list on the poster are EU directives that, had the UK been sovereign, it might have enacted for itself (certainly during 13 years of Labour). The issue is that the UK was not sovereign in these areas and had to obey the EU. As pro-EU supporters point out, there is no way out of EU control if you let it happen. Some of this control may be beneficial, some is not beneficial - will Unite be as happy with the EU if it swings strongly to the political Right? After a referendum vote to Remain in the EU there will be no escape. A decade or two after a "Remain" vote we could have an EU that, for instance, wants to expel all migrants and have no option but to comply.
EU Racism
Most pro-EU supporters are racists of the second kind - here is an example provided by the EU of this type of racism:
The destruction of diversity out of fear of difference, this is the key motivation for wanting to be governed by the EU.
All the important players in Europe are moving towards political union.
If 26 out of 28 countries want full union then all that the UK can do within the EU is to slow down assimilation. Eventually we will be absorbed. The chances of a referendum to exit the EU will be very slight once the UK loses its government. The most amazing feature of the EU is that the British media tell you that this is not the nature of the European Union. Check out the links:
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor said:
"we need a political union first and foremost" (BBC News).
Francois Hollande, the French president said:
"Political union is the step that follows fiscal union, banking union, and social union. It will provide a democratic framework for successful integration." (Le Monde)
President Sergio Mattarella of Italy's inaugural speech Feb 2015:
"The EU is now once again a perspective of hope and true political union to be relaunched without delay."
Mariano Rajoy Brey, Spanish prime minister:
"We need to fix these objectives - fiscal union, banking union, political union...And we must set a time scale. We are giving a message that we really want greater European integration. We can't say something is this first, then something else, without saying where we're going," Rajoy said at a news conference with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. (Reuters report).
What the European Commission says:
José Manuel Durão Barroso, President of the European Commission said:
"This is why the Economic and Monetary Union raises the question of a political union and the European democracy that must underpin it."...
.."A deep and genuine economic and monetary union, a political union, with a coherent foreign and defence policy, means ultimately that the present European Union must evolve." (State of the Union 2012 Address to the European Parliament on 12 September 2012).
The EU's Blueprint for a deep and genuine economic and monetary union (and political union) states that:
"This Blueprint for a Deep and Genuine EMU describes the necessary
elements and the steps towards a full banking, economic, fiscal and political union."
What the European Central Bank says:
1999 paper by the European Central Bank: Europe: Common Money - Political Union? In this paper it says that:
"The monetary order established by the Maastricht Treaty with the detailed statute of the European System of Central Banks by itself represents an important building block for the development of a European statehood."
The importance of the connection between monetary union and the establishment of a single state was well understood at the new European Central Bank in 1999:
"So what does the future hold? Anyone who believes in the role of a single currency as a pace-setter in achieving political unity (Europe will be created by means of a single currency or not at all (Jacques Rueff 1950)) will regard the decisive step as has having already been taken. This does not provide an answer as to how the "rest" of the journey should be approached. "
How does the European Central Bank see the current Euro crisis evolving? Here is an extract from an ECB approved presentation on the subject, Short Term Crisis Management and Long Term Vision, describing the 4 steps to a solution:
The first is a financial union, with a single framework for supervising and resolving banks and for insuring customer deposits. This would build on the single supervisory mechanism now under development and ideally lead to a European version of the FDIC, financed by contributions from the private sector.
The second building block is a fiscal union, with powers at the euro area level to prevent unsustainable fiscal policies and to limit national debt issuance. With these powers in place, a path towards common debt issuance would also be possible, but only at the end of the process.
The third building block is an economic union, which would help euro area members to remain fit and to adjust flexibly within monetary union. This could entail, for example, moving from soft coordination of structural reforms in Member States to an enforceable framework at the euro area level.
And the fourth building block is a political union, which aims at strengthening democratic participation. This final building block is equally important, as the other measures cannot be effective unless they are legitimate. This requires innovative thinking as regards the involvement of the European Parliament and national parliaments in decision-making on euro area issues.
The Ukraine is already an Associate of the EU. Turkey was considered for membership. Not only would Ukrainians and Turks eventually be able to settle in the UK but this will hugely increase the tension with Russia. The EU is dangerously expansionist.
Are we really joining a full political union?
The Treaties on the European Union are about union. The EU almost got to its final political union in 2004 with the Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe. Be under no illusions, this treaty almost happened, it was ratified by eighteen countries but referendums in the Netherlands and France rejected the Constitution.
The EU introduced the Lisbon Treaty as a temporary replacement for the Constitution. The Lisbon Treaty was a "lite" version of the Constitution in which many of the specific proposals in the Constitution were replaced with general intentions to move towards ever closer union. However, Lisbon is a large step on the way to full union and contains entire sections of the Constitution copied word for word but renamed "The Lisbon Treaty".
How much self-government would remain after full political union?
The EU reserves to itself the right to have competence for almost all areas of government but in the absence of having exercised this right the member states may exercise government. This idea of reserving the right to govern is known as "shared competence". It allows the EU to quietly take over almost all areas of government without further Treaties (Don't believe this? See The European Union - What happened on 1st November 2014).
The EU will be also be able to change its areas of competence if there is a vote in the EU Council to do so. The UK has only 8.5% of the vote in the EU Council and so cannot resist any change. There is no veto for this. If Scotland were alone in the EU it would have 1% of the vote - almost no voice at all.
What has been learnt from the Refugee/Migrant Crisis?
When an issue looks universally popular the EU Council can take decisions but when the going gets tough the Council dithers and leaves the Nation States to pick up the pieces. This happened in the refugee crisis: the EU had clear responsibility for external borders but could not cope when events became difficult. The only way the EU will be able to avoid this paralysis in the long run is if the EU Council becomes structured with a true presidency, or even replaced by a presidency, that can issue commands (There are already plans for a Presidency based on the Commission - see Spinelli Group and A New EU Constitution: The Fundamental Law of the EU).
What areas of Government are reserved to the EU by the Constitution itself?
Defence: controlled by EU apart from existing commitments to NATO, the EU would be in control of defence planning and operations.
Foreign Policy: controlled by EU: "1. In the context of the principles and objectives of its external action, the Union shall define and implement a common foreign and security policy covering all areas of foreign and security policy. 2. The Member States shall support the common foreign and security policy actively and unreservedly in a spirit of loyalty and mutual solidarity."
Given that the UK would no longer have any official voice outside the EU and would be a tiny minority in the EU Council, full political union would erase the voice of the UK from the world.
Currency: It is intended that, in the long term, all member states will adopt the Euro. The UK and Denmark can opt out as long as they desire but some of the Constitution is framed with wording such as " pending the Euro becoming the currency of all Member States of the Union".
Economic Policy: controlled by EU: "2. The Council, on a recommendation from the Commission, shall formulate a draft for the broad guidelines of the economic policies of the Member States and of the Union, and shall report its findings to the European Council." Once inside the Eurozone the EU dictates much of the minutiae of economic policy, as has been seen with Greece in recent years.
Social Security: harmonized by EU: "in the field of social security, European laws or framework laws shall establish such measures as are necessary to bring about freedom of movement for workers by making arrangements to secure for employed and self-employed migrant workers and their dependants". This has wide ramifications, especially as regards non-contributory benefits (ie: much of the UK Social Security system).
Law: The European Court of Justice is the final appeal court for EU Regulations and Laws, not the courts of member states. New laws will increasingly be pan-European.
Education: Pro-EU courses to be taught: "(a) developing the European dimension in education, particularly through the teaching and dissemination of the languages of the Member States;" In fact EU intervention in education goes much further, for instance all states are bound by EU Council to attain the benchmarks in education and there are a large number of EU organisations and projects to control education .
Health: EU has control of health and safety and working conditions. The non-contributory nature of the NHS is probably incompatible with free movement.
In fact Lisbon already contains the powers to implement most of these provisions but does not state them as clearly as the Constitution. The net result of all these changes that are in the pipeline is the termination of the UK as an independent state.
Most pro-EU supporters acknowledge that the UK must obey EU directives on all of the matters which they might consider to be beneficial. The EU has been sovereign in many areas since 1993 and has passed regulations that may or may not have been passed as laws by the UK government. The key feature here is that the EU was SOVEREIGN in these areas, not the UK, and EU supporters admit it. However, ask a pro-EU supporter as to whether the EU is sovereign in any area that they do not like and they will reply that the UK is not bound by the EU!
The Trades Union "Unite" uses the poster reproduced above to campaign for the EU. The regulations in the list on the poster are EU directives that, had the UK been sovereign, it might have enacted for itself (certainly during 13 years of Labour). The issue is that the UK was not sovereign in these areas and had to obey the EU. As pro-EU supporters point out, there is no way out of EU control if you let it happen. Some of this control may be beneficial, some is not beneficial - will Unite be as happy with the EU if it swings strongly to the political Right? After a referendum vote to Remain in the EU there will be no escape. A decade or two after a "Remain" vote we could have an EU that, for instance, wants to expel all migrants and have no option but to comply.
EU Racism
Most pro-EU supporters are racists of the second kind - here is an example provided by the EU of this type of racism:
The destruction of diversity out of fear of difference, this is the key motivation for wanting to be governed by the EU.
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